Is it better to be lucky or good? Should we trust our gut feelings or rely on probabilities and careful analysis when making important decisions?
- Ted Talk Decision Making Poker Odds
- Ted Talk Decision Making Poker Strategy
- Ted Talk Decision Making Poker Games
Annie Duke Gives A Talk On Decision Making For Motilal Oswal by Shriya Ghate Posted on 20 Nov, 2020. A world renowned former pro poker player, a decision strategist, an author and a performance coach–Annie Duke is all this and much more! Today, many Indians had the good fortune of listening to this maverick as she gave a talk on better. Decision-making effectiveness suffers by up to 40% when we focus on two cognitive tasks at the same time. So when you need to make important decisions, carve out and commit to several blocks of.
British poker pro Liv Boeree is one of the few female poker players who has found success playing poker.
Boeree has worked hard on building her brand by using social media and sharing her success through different mediums.
She has accumulated over $3.7 million in career prize money and recently took the stage at a TED event to share '3 Lessons on Decision Making from a Poker Champion'.
How can players accurately assess their skills? How can they predict outcomes? How much should people trust their instincts in poker and in life?
These were some of the questions that PokerStars Team Pro Liv Boeree addressed during her talk.
TED Radio Hour
The Importance Of Luck
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Boeree said that life is a lot like poker in that it takes a combination of skill and luck to succeed. She feels that people must take a moment and ask themselves how much they are truly responsible for when they experience success.
Boeree illustrated her point by talking about poker players who win big tournaments and overestimate their skill. Such a thing can lead to overconfidence. People need to acknowledge the amount of luck that played a role in that success so that they can assess their own skill more realistically.
Overestimating Intuition
Boeree claimed that poker has changed to the point that players can't solely rely on their intuition in order to win. These days, players rely on a slow and careful analysis. She explained that the reason for this is that our intuition isn't as great as we like to think it is. Our gut feelings are vulnerable to biases and wishful thinking. This is why Boeree suggests that when we are forced to make decisions that we pay attention to our gut feelings but we should rely on careful analysis before making a decision.
In her speech, Boeree said
Poker is a game of probabilities and precision. And so you have to train yourself to think in numbers
Risk Analysis
Ted Talk Decision Making Poker Odds
Boeree explained that probabilities play a part in both poker and life. She advised her listeners to not jump into anything without taking the time to count the costs and do a proper risk analysis. By doing this, the many interpretations that come from murky probabilistic language are removed.
This isn't the first time that Boeree has taken a TED stage. She has shared on similar topics at TED events in the past and those talks focused on statistical thinking and how it applies to both poker and life.
Research has shown that the typical person makes about 2,000 decisions every waking hour. Most decisions are minor and we make them instinctively or automatically — what to wear to work in the morning, whether to eat lunch now or in ten minutes, etc. But many of the decisions we make throughout the day take real thought, and have serious consequences. Consistently making good decisions is arguably the most important habit we can develop, especially at work. Our choices affect our health, our safety, our relationships, how we spend our time, and our overall well-being. Based on my experiences from three deployments as an Army officer and from researching Lead Yourself First, I've found the following mindsets to be detrimental to good decision-making. When you have to make an important decision, be on the lookout for:
Decision fatigue. Even the most energetic people don't have endless mental energy. Our ability to perform mental tasks and make decisions wears thin when it's repeatedly exerted. One of the most famous studies on this topic showed that prisoners are more likely to have parole approved in the morning than when their cases are heard in the afternoon. With so many decisions to make, especially ones that have a big impact on other people, it's inevitable to experience decision fatigue. To counter it, identify the most important decisions you need to make, and, as often as possible, prioritize your time so that you make them when your energy levels are highest.
A steady state of distraction. The technology tsunami of the past decade has ushered in an era of unprecedented convenience. But it's also created an environment where information and communication never cease. Researchers estimate that our brains process five times as much information today as in 1986. Consequently, many of us live in a continuous state of distraction and struggle to focus. To counter this, find time each day to unplug and step back from email, social media, news, and the onslaught of the Information Age. It's easier said than done, but doable if you make it a priority.
You and Your Team Series
Decision Making
- 3 Ways to Improve Your Decision Making
- Walter Frick
- David Maxfield
Ted Talk Decision Making Poker Strategy
Lack of input. The Kellogg School recently found that in a typical meeting, an average of three people do 70% of the talking. As author Susan Cain articulates so well in her book Quiet, many introverts are reluctant to speak up in a meeting until they know precisely what they want to say. Yet, these members of our teams often have some of the best ideas to contribute, since they spend so much of their time thinking. To counter this inclination, send out a meeting agenda 24 hours in advance to give everyone time to think about their contributions, and work to set a meeting culture that allows people to contribute their ideas after the meeting is over.
Ted Talk Decision Making Poker Games
Multi-tasking. There aren't many jobs left in the world today that don't require at least some multi-tasking. While that's the reality, research clearly shows that performance, including decision-making effectiveness, suffers by up to 40% when we focus on two cognitive tasks at the same time. When you need to make important decisions, carve out and commit to several blocks of time during the day to focus deeply on the task at hand.
Emotions. Experiencing frustration, excitement, anger, joy, etc., is a fundamental part of the daily human experience. And while these emotions have a meaningful role in our lives, you probably don't need to see the research to know that our emotions, especially during moments of peak anger and happiness, can hinder our ability to make good decisions. Deciding to speak or send an email while angry often compounds a tough situation, because the words don't come out right. To counter this, pay attention to your emotional state and focus on the character strength of self-control. Resist the temptation to respond to people or make decisions while you're emotionally keyed up. Practice walking away from the computer or putting the phone down, and return to the task at hand when you're able to think more clearly and calmly.
Analysis Paralysis. While the Information Age has gifted us with an abundance of information, big data, and metrics, there's also no end to the amount of information we can access. And we know that the more information we have to consider, the longer we typically take to make a decision. While the decision-making process should be thorough, the best way to make good decisions is usually not to take more time or to look at more information. Instead, review the pertinent information you need, set a deadline to make a decision, and then stick to it.
The decisions we make determine our reality. They directly impact how we spend our time and what information we process (or ignore). Our decisions shape our relationships — and increasingly in today's hyper-connected world, decisions contribute to our energy level and how efficient we are in the various aspects of our lives. Inevitably, we all make some poor decisions every single day. But if we are aware of these six enemies of good decision-making, and take steps to outmaneuver them, we can make better decisions that have a positive impact on the people we work with and lead.
